2009 National League West Forecast

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-Digger's Daily-

Los Angeles trailed Arizona for most of ’08. In late August, LA had lost 10 of 11 games falling below .500 (68-70). Then came the much publicized trade for Boston star Manny Ramirez. When all was said and done, Joe Torre’s Dodgers were NL West Champs and swept the heavily favored Cubs in the NLDS. 2009 figures to be another dogfight between the division’s top two teams.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr. Joe Torre)
Torre had sweet revenge in 2009. One of the greatest Yankees managers ever was shown disrespect and ultimately dismissed from NY after managing them to 12 consecutive Playoff appearances including 4 World Series Championships. Guess what happened next? Yankees floundered and failed to make the post season. Dodgers won NL West. Sweet revenge! Yes, baseball is a funny game.

Rotation: Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Wolf, ?? Setup: Kuo. Closer: Broxton. LA lost a couple of starters from last year and seem set to go with younger guns. Jason Schmidt has spent most of his short Dodger career injured after signing a $47M contract. He should finally be ready to join LA’s rotation. Bullpen strength is a must in ’09 to bail out starters. So far so good as this crew has live arms. Catcher Russell Martin has a keen understanding of pitch selection in addition to his timely hitting.

Around the Horn: Looney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake. Solid infield combination of speed, defense and clutch hitting. Ramirez superb LA stats over-shadowed one of LA’s unsung heroes…. 3B Casey Blake. Blake was another vital late season acquisition who helped LA win NL West. Furcal needs to remain healthy in ’09. New 2B Hudson is a gamer. Torre hopes experience takes 1B Looney to the next level.

Outfielders: Ethier, Kemp, Ramirez. Ethier & Kemp continue progressing quickly. Both are very good hitters. Manny was re-signed last week after months of on again off again negotiations. He’s a vital ingredient to this squad’s success. I’m expecting another mind boggling stat year from one of baseball’s top sluggers. Juan Pierre is the odd man out but Torre will find a way to get him into games.

Forecast: Starting pitching is LA’s only potential weakness. Solid defensive group. Steady and improving young hitters coupled with Manny’s power stroke will help Dodgers pass 90 wins. LA has been one of the games best organizations for finding and developing talent. Now it’s time for them to shine.


Arizona Diamondbacks (Mgr. Bob Melvin)
Melvin’s team has the potential to become a force in NL baseball. Maturity must take hold this year or another late season collapse may break up the D-Backs. This is a group without discipline on and off the field. A quick study of the following stats is self explanatory as to why Arizona failed down the stretch in ’08. Rally killing hitters...batter wiff totals: 204 – Reynolds, 165- Young, 121 – Upton (356 AB’s), 101 – Snyder (334 AB’s). Shockingly terrible. Time for another batting instructor! Until this team learns the strike zone… they’ll have a hard time winning games when it counts.

Rotation: Webb, Haren, Garland, Davis, ?? Setup: undecided. Closer: Quails. A bit shaky right now with injuries to #4 starter Davis and #5 unproven Scherzer. These guys might get hit hard. Bullpen is extremely thin. Quails will have problems as a first year closer. Inconsistent catcher Snyder needs to play better heads up baseball.

Around the Horn: Tracy, Lopez, Drew, Reynolds. Not great. Tracy has not turned into the player Arizona hoped he’d become. Lopez is the newcomer at 2B. Drew, another one time highly rated player, has terrible range at SS but can swing the bat (.295, 21 HR). Highly publicized 3B Reynolds was abysmal in the 2nd half. He finished with 204 strikeouts and 34 errors. This crew had better improve quickly if they want to win games.

Outfield: Upton, Young, Byrnes. A bunch of free swinging OF’s will make their share of errors too. Upton had 11 errors and 121 strikeouts in 108 games… absolutely pathetic. CF Young was swinging for the fences all season long after 32 dingers in ’08. He fouled up his swing to the tune of 165 strikeouts. Byrnes tries to return from leg injuries which derailed any chance of an effective ’08. These guys need to focus. A repeat of rally killing strikeouts will be duplicated again this season.

Forecast: I find it amazing Arizona was even in the hunt last year. This happens to be an extremely talented group which needs to learn how to play a “team” game. Until then, selfishness will kill their chances.


Colorado Rockies (Mgr. Clint Hurdle)
Hurdle’s team is two season’s removed from their spectacular ’07 which landed them in the World Series after an incredible victory streak in late September. They took their lumps last year and will be without one of baseball’s best pure hitter in ’09, Matt Holliday.

Rotation: Cook, Jiminez, Marquis, De La Rosa, ?? Setup: undecided. Closer: Street. Rockies starters always face potential trouble when pitching at home. Jiminez has the stuff to be a great pitcher for years to come. The others will probably get hit hard in ’09. Bullpen is pretty solid. Hudson Street will close games out if he can stay healthy. Chris Iannetta is on the path to becoming one of NL’s best catchers of this generation.

Around the Horn: Helton, Barmes, Tulowitzki, Atkins. A pretty solid infield if Barmes plays as expected. Helton’s stats have been deteriorating the past few years. Colorado needs him to bounce back in a big way. Tulowitzki had a tremendous rookie year in ’07 but the wheels fell off in ’08. Atkins is another one of baseball’s rising stars. These guys need to be on everyday if the Rockies want to contend.

Outfield: Hawpe, Spillborghs, Carlos Gonzalez. Hawpe is this groups natural hitter. Spillborghs & Gonzo get their first career cracks as starters. Their defense in spacious Coors Field must be near perfect or the starting staff is in deep trouble.

Forecast: Declining power totals + questionable fielding + not so hot starting pitching = trouble. Rockies know what it takes to reach the promised land. The foundation is set for future success.


San Francisco Giants (Mgr. Bruce Bochy)
Bochy has led SF to back to back 90+ losses after a great tenure with division rival Padres. Giants have a couple of great young arms. Biggest concern, can anyone hit a baseball out of the park? This team will be at the bottom of team homeruns.

Rotation: Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito, Sanchez. Setup: Howry. Closer: Wilson. Lincecum (18-5, 2.62) was outstanding in only his 2nd MLB season. Cain could easily have won 14 instead of losing 14 but fell victim to shoddy defense and no run support. Randy Johnson was signed as a tutor to these young pitchers… and to show what’s left in his tank. Zito has been one of baseball’s biggest free agent busts after signing with SF in ’07. It might not matter how well these guys pitch if teammates can’t score runs.

Around the Horn: Ishikawa, Frandsen, Renteria, Sandoval. Opening day lineup could be quite different as position battles are still in progress everywhere except SS. Minimal big league experience and not much production from the other three pose big problems. Vets Uribe and Aurilia are fighting for starting infield jobs too.

Outfield: Winn, Rowand, Lewis. OF trio covers plenty of ground and will hit for respectable batting average. No hope in the power department. Not much to speak of as of now for backups unless a rookie or walk on player survives camp.

Forecast: Dire. SF is one of the games weakest hitting bunch with no true power hitter. Starting pitchers have great upside potential. Giants will need to win a bunch of 3-2 games…. Don’t bet on it! SF on pace to lose 90+ for years to come until they can rebuilt an offense.


San Diego Padres (Mgr. Bud Black)
Padres never fully recovered from 2007’s late September debacle. Last year was ugly. 2009 might be worse. SD tried unsuccessfully to trade star pitcher Jake Peavy during the winter. He’ll be gone by the trading deadline. SD has shed payroll at every opportunity. This club is spiraling downwards.

Rotation: Peavy, Young, Baek, Correia, Prior. Setup: Meredith. Closer: Bell. Peavy will be gone well before MLB’s July trading deadline. Prior is always one pitch away from injury. He’s still rehabbing and hasn’t pitched in one spring game yet. 2007’s strong first half bullpen threw away playoff hopes. In ’08, they just threw junk. It’ll be a mixed bag of platoon’s behind home plate this season which can’t be promising for the pitching staff.

Around the Horn: Gonzalez, Eckstein, Rodriguez, Kouzmanoff. Solid on the corners with slugging Gonzalez and slugger to be Kouz. Very weak up the middle with Eckstein moving to 2B and Luis Rodriguez manning SS. Don’t be surprised to see Eck return to SS with Edgar Gonzalez taking over at 2B. Middle infield needs help. They won’t get it.

Outfield: Giles, Gerut, Headley/Hairston. Giles is on the downturn of his career but still maintains a terrific batting eye. Gerut & Headley showed brief flashes of promise last year. Hairston will get plenty of AB’s as a reserve unless he wins the starting job this spring.

Forecast: Frigid. SD is facing an identity crisis. Clearly looking to slash payroll but with very few suitors to take on what’s left of high priced players. Padres haven’t won more than 90 games in ten years. At this rate, they’ll be losing 90 for the next ten.

Stay tuned for Awards predictions…..

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