2009 American League Central Forecast

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by Digger

American League Central 2009. Baseball's anything can happen division. Last year, this division was decided by a one game sudden death Playoff. Chicago won a nailbiter over Minnesota 1-0 for the crown. Plenty of "what if's" when teams break camp in a couple of weeks. No single team stands above the rest. The experts are divided. Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota have been predicted to win. Not in my book! Here's how they'll finish in '09:

Kansas City Royals (Mgr. Trey Hillman)Ok, call me crazy. I’m picking Kansas City. Why not? In 2007 it was Colorado stunning the baseball world. Last year, Tampa Bay came out of nowhere. This year, my sleeper team is from Missouri. The Royals made some key upgrades and are serious about 2009 becoming their first playoff appearance since 1985 (World Series Champs).

Rotation: Projected to be Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Davies, Ramirez. Setup: Juan Cruz. Closer: Joakim Soria. 1 thru 3 is set with spring contenders fighting for final two starting assignments. KC’s bullpen is deep. Very deep for the first time in years. It will be up the the starting staff to pitch deep into contests. Then it could be lights out for opposing hitters in late inning situations. Many strong arms compete for bullpen duties this spring. Kyle Farnsworth could be the go to guy in middle innings. Soria will shut the door and pick up plenty of saves. Miguel Olivo will probably get most chances behind the dish to handle this group. He’ll also provide much needed offensive pop. This staff reminds me of Tampa’s heading into last year. No one expected too much up front… but they quickly gelled and propelled TB to AL East crown. If the pieces fall into place, KC will stun Central foes.

Around the Horn: Jacobs, Teahen, Aviles, Gordon. Did you say who? All of these young infielders are primed for a breakout season. Mike Jacobs crushed 32 homers for Florida in ’08. Teahen & Gordon are two home grown talents needing to show maturity at the plate by cutting down on strikeouts. Both are solid hitters and will have plenty of opportunities to deliver. Aviles hit .325 in limited starts last year. These four players must come thru when it matters most. Strikeouts will be rally killers. They must, and will, play smart ball to create runs. Their defense will be a pleasant surprise to a pitching staff hampered by past poor play.

Outfield: Guillen, Crisp, DeJesus. Guillen finally has help in KC’s new look lineup. Crisp in CF is an instant upgrade. DeJesus has proven he can handle anyone’s nasty stuff. Defensive range and strong arms will keep opposing hitters from gambling for extra bases. Not much depth behind this starting crew. Injuries could be costly.

Forecast: You’ve read it here first. Royals will win AL Central division title. They have all the ingredients. Pitching, hitting, speed & defense. Can they put it together to produce wins? Yes!


Cleveland Indians (Mgr. Eric Wedge)2008 was supposed to be Cleveland’s year after winning the Central in ’07. They sputtered out of the gate and never really contended. Cliff Lee (22-3) was their only effective starting pitcher and he wasn’t even projected to make the opening day rotation last spring. Many questions surround this club. Picking them 2nd might seem crazier than KC in 1st. Then again, this is the anything can happen AL Central.

Rotation: Lee, Carmona, Pavano are 1-3. Setup: undecided. Closer: Kerry Wood. Wedge will decide his final two this spring. Potential here can swing either way… very good or very bad. Lee will not reproduce ’08 numbers but will be very good once again. Everyone else needs to prove prior successes weren’t flukes. Tribe signed oft-injured Wood to close games which was quite a gamble. Bullpen must put out fires set by starters or Cleveland could easily become a last place team. Behind the plate is Kelly Shoppach who displayed home run power in ’08. He’ll have to keep pitchers under control.

Around the Horn: Garko, Cabrera, Peralta, DeRosa. Peralta (SS) anchors this infield group. Not much power from these guys so hitting with runners in scoring position becomes extremely important if this team expects to win games. 2nd base remains a problem position. Cabrera is not the answer unless his defensive prowess hides a weak bat.

Outfield: Choo, Sizemore, Francisco. Not good. Not good at all. Sizemore is great but might not see many good pitches to hit in ’09 as lineup protection is lacking. Choo & Francisco haven’t cashed in on brief opportunities. Very risky to have these guys open the season. It might work out.

Forecast: Cleveland will only go as far as their pitchers take them. It doesn’t look good to me on paper. Indians will finish a distant 2nd to KC. Don’t be surprised to see these guys finish dead last.


Chicago White Sox (Mgr. Ozzie Guillen)Outspoken manager Guillen will have plenty to crow about this year if Chicago starts slowly. This squad has the tools to win the division if starting pitchers do their job. Infield defense might cost this team many victories.

Rotation: Buehrle, Floyd, Danks, Colon, Contreras. Setup: Dotel. Closer: Jenks. Front three will provide innings. Colon & Contreras fighting their way back from nagging injuries remain brittle. Spring contenders are highly rated within the organization but haven’t proven themselves on the pro level. Jenks is a dominating closer when he’s not walking himself into trouble. Sox pen gives away too many free passes. If this continues water coolers beware for firecracker Guillen to start swinging. AJ Pierzynski calls the shots behind home plate. He’ll be busy with this wild bunch.

Around the Horn: Konerko, ??, Ramirez, Fields. Konerko had a subpar ’08 and might be facing declining years. 2nd base job will be won in spring training. There’s no clear cut leader here. Rookie Gordon Beckham is having a nice spring trying to win a job. Alexi Ramirez played mostly 2b last year will begin ’09 as the everyday SS. Josh Fields smacked 23 homers in ’07 as a rookie 3B but spent most of last year struggling in minors. As a group, these guys aren’t going to scare anyone. Defense will suffer. OBA is low and strikeouts high… a terrible combination. Baseball’s worst infield heading into 2009.

Outfield: Dye, Owens, Quentin. Very strong corner OF’s (Dye/Quentin) are gamers. Both hit for power. OF defense is another concern for Guillen. If Owens fails to produce, Brian Anderson will be waiting to take over. His D is pretty solid but he can’t hit. Not much depth if someone gets hurt.

Forecast: Slugging Vet Jim Thome needs to step into a leadership role if Chicago plans on challenging this season. Offense strikes out way too much. Defense is very shaky. As a result, pitchers stats will be ugly. Guillen’s antics might get him canned. GM should be first to go for assembling this group. Anything can happen here but middle of the road seems to fit.


Detroit Tigers (Mgr. Jim Leyland)Heading into ’08, the Tigers appeared to be ready to dominate the American League. A great young and improving starting rotation. Deep bullpen. Slugging lineup. They had made several great acquisitions (Willis, Cabrera) and were predicted to win. We were all dead wrong. Detroit stumbled early and often. The pitchers weren’t good and defense even worse. Not much has changed heading into ’09. However, if the rotation can bounce back then better days ahead. Don’t count on it yet.

Rotation: Verlander, Bonderman, Galarraga, Jackson, Willis, Robertson. Setup: Zumaya. Closer: Lyon. Armando Galarraga was the lone bright spot for baseball’s most underachieving ’08 staff. Verlander, Willis & Robertson imploded. What’s in store for ’09 is probably more of the same (I expect Verlander to return to form). Brandon Lyon is the new closer. Don’t expect much from a guy with a career 4.46 era. Bullpen is hurting. Many competing for a few remaining slots. New weak hitting signal callers, Laird & Treanor, will have their hands full with this erratic staff.

Around the Horn: Cabrera, Polanco, Everett, Inge. Cabrera is one of baseball’s best hitters but defense is a liability. He’s gone from LF to 3B to 1B in his brief Tiger career. Polanco/Everett should be a fine dp combo. Corner inf’s swing big sticks. Everett will need to advance runners with bunts or smart outs.

Outfield: Ordonez, Granderson, Guillen. Gary Sheffield is finally mentally ready to be Detroit’s full time DH. Carlos Guillen is slated to be Tigers everyday LF. This move should guarantee another injury plagued year. Granderson keeps improving and Ordonez is Detroit’s Mr. Clutch. All 4 can hit and will knock in their share of runs.

Forecast: I had predicted Detroit to challenge for the Title last year. They failed miserably. If pitchers struggle, Tigers will have a dismal season. If staff bounces back, then the skies the limit.


Minnesota Twins (Mgr. Ron Gardenhire)This is one team no one should pick for last place. Gardenhire knows how to tweak every last ounce of energy from his players. They don’t dominate games. They just find a way to win. In ’08, they nearly scrapped and clawed their way to the AL Central title. A one game sudden death playoff 1-0 loss to Chicago sent the Twins home. Lack of power will finally catch up to this crew in ’09.

Rotation: Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins. Setup: Crain. Closer: Nathan. It seemed as though Twins starters made big pitches in key moments all year long until a Jim Thome homerun ended their season in sudden death. Don’t expect the same in ’09 as Twins will be trailing thanks to a less than productive offense. Except for Nathan, bullpen will be challenged and over worked all year long. Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s best hitting catchers. However, his surgically repaired back is still bothering him causing Minnesota great concern this spring.

Around the Horn: Morneau, Casilla, Pinto, Crede. Morneau represents the Twins only power threat. Bank on him not getting very many good looks at the dish. This weak lineup offers him no protection. Infield defense on the speedy Metrodome turf will be challenged with Casilla/Pinto dp combo playing their first full season together. Crede was picked up from Chicago offers some pop as a middle of the road 3B. These guys will not produce many runs unless they’re given a ton of free passes (not likely).

Outfield: Cuddyer, Gomez, Young, Kubel. Not exactly top 10 picks in fantasy baseball leagues. Cuddyer is hoping to return to ’07 form. Speedy ex-Met top prospect Gomez (CF) is a star in the making. He must cut down on strikeout totals (142 in 577 AB’s) to become an effective hitter. Pretty solid defense but it doesn’t offset their collective lack of production. Kubel will DH.

Forecast: Gardenhire’s seven year tenure has produced 4 division titles and a near miss in ’08. The run is done. 2009 will be an instructional year. Pitching, hitting, infield defense all need improving. On paper, this team does not match up will with division rivals. Games are won and lost on the field. Minnesota will lose 90+.

Stay tuned... American League West on deck!

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