2009 National League Central Forecast

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-Digger's Daily-

Chicago is favored again to win the NL Central. 100 years and counting since the Cubs last won a Championship. From curses to errors to chokes… a century of players haven’t solved their drought. 97 wins in ’08 was a NL best. However, they were quickly eliminated in three straight Playoff games for the 2nd consecutive season. Cubbies will dominate again this regular season before finding a new and innovative way to extend their streak. Dusty Baker will have fun and fits with his young Cincinnati team. They’ll score runs in bunches. Houston, St. Louis & Milwaukee are all searching for answers before teams break camp. Pittsburgh can’t seem to put it together. A promising team a couple of years ago now is hoping experience finally pays off.

Chicago Cubs (Mgr. Lou Piniella)
Piniella’s team has it all. Great hitting, great pitching, speed and defense. So why can’t they win a Playoff game when it counts? Cubs are poised to dominate the Central again in ’09.

Rotation: Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly, ??. Setup: Gregg. Closer: Carlos Marmol. Chicago’s front four make up the Central’s deepest staff. 5th nod is up for grabs between two hopefuls enjoying great springs (Marshall, Samardzija). ’09 is Marmol’s first as a closer. He’ll get plenty of save chances picking up where quality starts leave off. A solid group of relievers will keep Piniella from throwing fits. Rising star catcher Geovani Soto is quickly becoming one of baseball’s premier players.

Around the Horn: Lee, Fontenot/Miles, Theriot, Ramirez. Solid group flashes leather and produces at the plate. I’m expecting all of them to put up big numbers in ’09.

Outfield: Bradley, Fukudome, Soriano. Milton Bradley brings his flamboyant style to the Windy City. Perhaps, he’s just what this team needs to loosen up in October. Then again, he’s been accused of disrupting one of his former teams. Fukudome wound up in Lou’s doghouse last year. If he starts slowly, Reed Johnson is ready and waiting to take over. Soriano is deadly when healthy.

Forecast: Cubs set to run away with Central. 100+ wins is easily within reach.


Cincinnati Reds (Mgr. Dusty Baker)Baker’s bunch plays an exciting brand of baseball. Do not be surprised to see them challenge Chicago for division honors. I see them more of a viable Wild Card candidate. It just might happen if their pitching staff plays big.

Rotation: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Owings. Setup: Weathers. Closer: Cordero. Reds rotation has tremendous upside. Volquez & Cueto are unhittable when on their game. Arroyo gives innings. Harang needs to rebound after a less than stellar ’08. Chicago better not get to comfortable believing they’re the best. Cincinnati’s gaining quickly. Free agent catcher Ramon Hernandez should enjoy hitting friendly Central ballparks. His numbers should improve in Cincy.

Around the Horn: Votto, Phillips, Gonzalez, Encarnacion. Young guns will be tested this year. Votto had a great rookie year in ’08. Phillips is a top tier 2B. Gonzo and Encarnacion will need to develop better batting eyes and cut down on fielding gaffs. It’s only a matter of time before this infield starts earning attention.

Outfield: Bruce, Taveras, Hairston. Bruce was impressive during his rookie season. Sophomore jinx or the real deal? Baker hopes he’s ready for prime time. Taveras brings speed (68 steals in ’08). Oft injured Hairston continues to receive chance after chance by various teams. He’s never lived up to the hype. Waiting in the wings is Chris Dickerson.

Forecast: Reds might be a year away from becoming playoff contenders. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they qualify in ’09.


Houston Astros (Mgr. Cecil Cooper)Cooper seems firmly in control of his team. Fundamentally sound baseball and remaining relatively free of injury are the keys for Houston. It’ll be a rough ride trying to catch Chicago. 2nd place can be had.

Rotation: Oswalt, Rodriguez, Hampton, Backe, ? Setup: Hawkins. Closer: Valverde. Oswalt is the only proven gun. Astros have been high on Rodriguez for years… in ’08 he finally showed why. Hampton will try, again, resurrecting a career nearly ended by multiple injuries. Backe returns as starter #4. Hard throwing bullpen will help put out fires. Lineup weak spot is catcher. They’re not the best game callers either. Houston should try to sign free agent catcher Ivan Rodriguez. Around the Horn: Berkman, Matsui, Tejada, Blum. Berkman is a professional hitter who doesn’t get cheated at the plate. Matsui has become a solid 2B. Tejada’s power numbers have declined. No surprise since he was once a juicer. Blum is another lineup weakness. Thin depth offers few solutions if the DL comes into play.

Outfield: Pence, Bourne, Lee. Prince and Bourne continue to develop. Lee provides power and clutch hitting. Erstad & Jason Michaels are the backups looking for as many AB’s as possible.

Forecast: Bland. Maybe they’ll win a few, maybe lose a few? Middle of the road Astros will not be a playoff contender.


St. Louis Cardinals (Mgr. Tony LaRussa)After 100 games in ’08, Cards were 57-43 trailing 1st by 2 games. They finished 11.5 games out. LaRussa has a few new faces in the field and one returning stud on the hill. I don’t envision StL putting up any sort of serious challenge.

Rotation: Wainwright, Carpenter, Lohse, Wellmeyer, Pineiro. Setup: undecided. Closer: undecided. It’s tough heading into the regular season without a proven closer. Rotation is all righties. Carpenter returns after a long injury rehab. He’ll be counted on to keep Cards competitive. Vet Yadier Molina, known for defense, hit .304 last year. Can he do it again?

Around the Horn: Pujols, Schumaker, Greene, Mathier. Not enough praise can be given to Pujols, both on and off the diamond. One of baseball’s greatest ever pure hitters has many stellar years to go. He’s StL only lock for this infield. Schumaker has had a rough transition learning 2B this spring. He will make at least 30 errors if LaRussa refuses to use a regular 2B type. Kevin Greene has faded in recent years. Mathier is another conversion experiment. Cards infield might be worst majors has seen in recent years.

Outfield: Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan. These three swing for the fences. Ludwick came out of nowhere last year hitting 37 round trippers. Will he do it again? Probably not as I peg him to nail 20-25 this year. Ankiel has been a StL fan favorite since day one. It’s great to see him back in the majors playing well (converted from pitcher to CF).

Forecast: Don’t expect many positive reports coming out of Cards camp this summer. Too many experiments with key infield positions will have pitchers beating up water fountains. Distant 4th.


Milwaukee Brewers (Mgr. Ken Macha)How quickly the mighty dismantle. Milwaukee had risen out of mediocrity in recent years behind a gutsy pitching staff and powerful hitting. The pitching is now gone (Sabathia, Sheets). Hitters remain but play inconsistent defense. Macha’s Brewers were predicted by many to be Central champs in ‘07/’08. These guys are horrific by making bad outs. Hitters must learn the strike zone. They all strike out way too much to be successful for the long haul. They’ll be lucky to break even.

Rotation: Gallardo, Bush, Suppan, Looper, Parra/ McClung. Setup: undecided. Closer: Hoffman. Trevor Hoffman deserved a better send off out of San Diego. He’ll take over here hoping for many save opportunities (good luck). Rotation isn’t going to strike any fear into slugging NL lineups. Not much depth to be found anywhere on this staff. Light hitting Kendall is back doing the catching.

Around the Horn: Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hall. Slugging weak fielding Fielder leads the attack. He’s a liability at 1B on defense… as are the rest of these infielders. Inconsistent fielders & hitters who strike out way too much.

Outfield: Hart, Cameron, Braun. These 3 can play. Cameron is best known for acrobatic defensive plays. Hart & Braun are rising slugging stars. Braun is already an MVP caliber player. As with infielders, strike outs will be costly.

Forecast: Not good. They have a shot at finishing ahead of StL if they play fundamental baseball (don’t count on it). Temporary lapses will cost these guys dearly.


Pittsburgh Pirates (Mgr. Frank Coonelly)The Bucks are one of the teams I previously thought would accomplish similar feats along the likes of Tampa, Florida or Colorado style. Young talented starting pitchers, solid up the middle defense and nearly everyone an above average hitter. Finding a winning formula never materialized. They’ve earned a last place ranking heading into ’09 (which means they’ll win it all… not).

Rotation: Maholm, Snell, Duke, Gorzelanny, Karstens. Setup: undecided. Closer: Capps. At one time or another, these front four all showed flashes of future stardom. Unfortunately, they never managed to get it right at the same time. If they can get it going a first half wild card challenge is in the mix. Don’t bet on it but there is serious talent on Pittsburgh’s mound. Bullpen is another story but it’s usually because of severe mid-season burnout. Doumit’s the man behind home & will have a big year..

Around the Horn: Adam LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, Andy LaRoche. Andy has been a perennial slow starter in Pittsburgh contributing to lousy team April results. Brother Andy hasn’t shown much but the job is his to win or lose. Middle infielders solid and can hit.

Outfield: Morse, McLouth, Pearce, Monroe. McLouth will try improving on a great ’08 season. He’s the real deal. Walk on player Craig Monroe has been on fire this spring. He nailed 3 homers Thursday raising his total to 6 this spring. Pirates would be nuts not to give him a shot at starting. Morse and Pearce are a work in progress and haven’t been guaranteed a job just yet.

Forecast: 2009 looks like a long year for Pirates fans. Until they learn to win in April, there will be no talk of September’s. Time for Pittsburgh to prove their worthy of charging admission to the public!

Stay tuned… NL West up next!

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