2009 National League East Forecast

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by Digger

The World Champion Philadelphia Phillies wasted no time boasting of their lock on winning consecutive World Series. Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins have called division rival New York “choke artists” after Met back to back September failures. Atlanta might be on pace for 14 straight years of non-titles after more than a decade as East champs. Never count out the Marlins. Perennial youngest team is a wild card contender. Washington is the cellar dweller.


Philadelphia Phillies (Mgr. Charlie Manuel)The Champs added Raul Ibanez to the NL’s deepest team. Speed, power, pitching & defense. Manuel’s team will win 100 games.

Rotation: Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Kendrick or JA Happ. Setup: Madson. Closer: Lidge. Gutsy cast of characters led by Cy Young candidate to be Cole Hamels. Ageless Moyer returns after leading Phils with 16 victories in ’09. J.A. Happ is only moments away from joining the big league staff. He’s been impressive this spring. Phillies staff will get deep into games. Bullpen is tough as nails but short on lefties. Ruiz & Coste will share catching duties.

Around the Horn: Howard, Utley, Rollins & Feliz. Howard (’06) & Rollins (’07) have recently won MVP awards. Utley could be next. Hands down, NL’s best hitting infield. Great defense up the middle. This bunch will come to play every day.

Outfield: Werth, Victorino, Ibanez, Jenkins. Ibanez stats should explode in his new home park after playing in pitching friendly Safeco. He’ll have plenty of RBI chances and could creep into an MVP caliber season. Solid defensive group.

Forecast: All systems go. Phillies will run away with NL East unless over confidence crumbles their game. Doubt it. Phils on pace for 100+ victories.


New York Mets (Mgr. Jerry Manuel)Where has the Mets magic gone? Back to back gut wrenching September failures. Gone is Shea Stadium. Replaced by new Citi Field (a.k.a. Bail Out Park, a.k.a. Taxpayer Field). Citi Bank is locked into a $400M sponsorship deal with the Mets for naming rights to the new stadium in Flushing. GM Minaya’s mission this off season was to strengthen their biggest weakness, relievers. Record breaking closer Francisco Rodriguez (62 saves) and JJ Putz have been brought in to shut down teams in 8th & 9th. However, getting there will difficult behind NY’s starting staff. Manuel’s slated to tinker with the batting order. Speedster Reyes will hit 3rd, 2B Luis Castillo to lead off. IS HE CRAZY? Reyes is one of the game’s best leadoff hitters. There are far better run producers who should be batting 3rd. I do not like this move one bit. September woes will not happen this season. April might shower their season early on.

Rotation: Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez &?? Setup: Putz. Closer: Rodriguez. Santana is baseball’s best lefty but had early spring arm concerns. His health is suddenly in question. Pelfrey is a rising star. Maine had a rough time last year and has been off so far this spring. His #3 slot is essential to NY having a shot this year. Perez resigned after little free agent interest from other clubs. You never know which Perez will show up… wild man or untouchable. 5th slot is in shambles. Pedro remains unsigned after being one of the biggest busts in Mets history. The competition is between Freddie Garcia, Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding … all have been blasted this spring. They’re best days are long behind. Signing Pedro cheap makes sense if he can be had. Promote a hard throwing rookie. Something other than what’s on paper now. Schneider is not one of the better pitch calling catchers. He needs to start working OT with his staff.

Around the Horn: Delgado, Castillo, Reyes, Wright. Early season success is key in ’09. Delgado was out of synch in the 1st half before catching fire in July. Reyes has stolen 262 bases leading off since 2005. Manuel wants him batting 3rd. Ugh! Wright needs to find his clutch stroke this year. Way too many missed chances with games on the line. NY’s infield defense is one of baseball’s best.

Outfield: Church, Beltran, Murphy, Tatis. Rookie Murphy has won the LF job. It could be rough going if he falters. Beltran has been one month on, one month off two years running. RF can use a boost. Church is not the answer. Tatis will get plenty of AB’s filling in at multiple positions (LF, RF, 3B, 1B, PH) but lacks range.

Forecast: Magic is often found when christening new ballparks. The Mets have great defense and solid hitters. Question remains as to when they’ll finally put it all together? Phillies have challenged them. Phillies have insulted them. Mets have suffered two terrible Septembers. No team has more incentive to win than New York.

Florida Marlins (Mgr. Fredi Gonzalez)Young Marlins teams have been finding ways to win for years. Clearly one of baseball’s best scouting & farm systems cranks out future stars yearly. Problem is there’s rarely enough money in the kitty to keep them in South Florida. Marlins’ lineup has the potential to be explosive. Are their young pitchers ready to handle a long 162 game season?

Rotation: Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad, Sanchez, Miller. Setup: undecided. Closer: Lindstrom. Young, unproven bunch should receive plenty of run support. Throwing strikes and staying ahead of hitters is paramount to success. Lindstrom gets first crack at closing games. Bullpen might be a bit thin and overworked by the end of May. Catcher’s duties are up for grabs. None figure to contribute much run production.

Around the Horn: Cantu (Sanchez), Uggla, Ramirez, McPhearson (Cantu/Bonifacio). Many options are being considered this spring. Slugger Cantu (defensive liability) will start somewhere depending on spring battles. Cantu starts at 3B if rookie Gaby Sanchez wins the 1B job. Or, Cantu might start at 1B if rookie Emilio Bonifacio wins a job. Slugger to be McPhearson is also battling at 3B. Gonzalez will figure this one out soon enough. Uggla & Ramirez are two of baseball’s best. Marlins will be fielding plenty of inquiries around MLB’s trading deadline.

Outfield: Ross, Maybin, Hermidia. Corner OF’s Ross & Hermidia have huge upside potential. Big power numbers shouldn’t surprise anyone but they’re both probably one year away. Speedy Maybin is counted on to ignite Florida’s attack.

Forecast: Marlins will be streaky. This group will battle hard every game. Are they ready for prime time? Don’t be surprised if Florida is in wild card contention on September 1.


Atlanta Braves (Mgr. Bobby Cox)Volatile manager Bobby Cox is still one of baseball’s best. His team has aged before his eyes. New recruits have shown flashes in recent years. However, it’s been without enough consistency to keep Atlanta winning. Fans south of the border have complained I’m underestimating their beloved Braves. Lack of hitting power will make it hard for Atlanta to keep up with more potent attacks.

Rotation: Lowe, Vasquez, Jurrjens,??,?? Setup: Soriano. Closer: Gonzalez. Hudson is on the 60 day DL. Glavine’s return is on hold due to injury. This staff is hurting. Back end starters are struggling this spring. Cox entire bullpen figures to be burnt out early. NL backstop Brian McCann is one of baseball’s best.

Around the Horn: Kotchman, Johnson, Escobar, Chipper. 15 year vet 3B Chipper Jones hit a career best .364 during an injury riddled ’08. He’s already fighting an oblique strain. He’s one of baseball’s class acts. No signs of slowing down when he’s on the field. Keeping him there is another story. No power from the remaining infielders. Escobar needs to play mistake free SS.

Outfield: Francouer, Josh Anderson, Garret Anderson. Francouer struggled all of last season after a solid ’08. Josh A. is unproven but ranks high on Cox list. Garret Anderson has always been one of my favorite players. Steady (career .296), clutch, team oriented player makes his NL debut after spending 15 seasons as an Angel. He’ll be a force unless nagging injuries slow him down, again. Matt Diaz will get some AB’s vs lhp to give Garret some time off.

Forecast: Too many ifs keep Atlanta ranked in lower half of NL East. Cox will have to work miracles. It’s going to be a long summer in Hotlanta.


Washington Nationals (Mgr. Manny Acta)This team has been rocked by injuries nearly every season. Nats have some raw undeveloped talent. Question is when or if they’ll ever get it together?

Rotation: Lannan, Olsen, Hill, Cabrera, Ballister. Setup: undecided. Closer: Hanrahan (who?). Washington’s staff will be battered all season long. Shell shocked midway through May. Daniel Cabrera was signed after spending missing the strike zone in Baltimore. The others will tough it out. No upside to report here.

Around the Horn: Johnson, Belliard/Hernandez, Guzman, Zimmerman. 1B Johnson has played only 38 games in the past two years. He always seems to be one play away from getting hurt. Rookie Anderson Hernandez battles Ronnie Belliard for the starting nod at 2B. Guzman and Zimmerman are fine players roaming the diamonds left side.

Outfield: Dukes, Milledge, Dunn. Potentially explosive OF led by slugging Adam Dunn (40 or more HR’s 5 straight years). Dunn might see extensive time at 1B which is probably best for Nats chances to win. RF Dukes is tearing it up this spring. He needs to make headlines with good play instead of bad personal life choices. Milledge was a Mets future star. He’s a natural five tool player yet to reach full potential. Austin Kearns, once labeled a rising star, is an oft injured player who never lived up to the hype. He make get plenty of chances if Dunn takes over at 1B.

Forecast: Dark clouds hovering around Washington on the diamond too. It’s going to be a very long year in DC for Nationals fans. 100 losses could be on the way.

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